Burgos (W) vs Bizkerre (W)

09 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Burgos (W)

Bizkerre (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 25.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.2% 2.00 DRAW 26.4% 3.50 AWAY 27.4% 3.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Burgos (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.4% win probability, compared with 46.2% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Burgos (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Burgos (W) Bizkerre (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 5.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Burgos (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Burgos (W) Bizkerre (W)

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Burgos (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Burgos (W) Bizkerre (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Burgos (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Burgos (W) ↑ +0.17 (+9.3%)

Bizkerre (W) ↓ -0.46 (-11.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.