Valur Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyri

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.1 pp

Valur Reykjavik

Thor Akureyri

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.6% DRAW 19.8% AWAY 19.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% 1.71 DRAW 21.4% 4.50 AWAY 22.2% 4.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Valur Reykjavik clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.6% win probability, compared with 56.4% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Valur Reykjavik

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Valur Reykjavik Thor Akureyri

Shots 17.8 · On target 9.5 Shots 11.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Valur Reykjavik, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Valur Reykjavik Thor Akureyri

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Valur Reykjavik Thor Akureyri

The combined recent performance profile favours Valur Reykjavik.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Valur Reykjavik ↑ +0.15 (+9.7%)

Thor Akureyri ↓ -0.19 (-4.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.