Mohun Bagan SG II vs Coal India

10 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Mohun Bagan SG II

Coal India

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% 2.30 DRAW 30.4% 3.20 AWAY 27.3% 3.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Mohun Bagan SG II clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.3% win probability, compared with 42.3% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Mohun Bagan SG II

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mohun Bagan SG II Coal India

Shots 17.3 · On target 9.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Mohun Bagan SG II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mohun Bagan SG II Coal India

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mohun Bagan SG II Coal India

The combined recent performance profile favours Mohun Bagan SG II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Mohun Bagan SG II ↑ +0.47 (+25.5%)

Coal India ↓ -0.50 (-13.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.