SK Super Nova vs Riga FC

15 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

SK Super Nova

Riga FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 7.7% DRAW 13.4% AWAY 78.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 8.6% 11.00 DRAW 14.8% 6.40 AWAY 76.6% 1.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Riga FC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

SK Super Nova Riga FC

Shots 5.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 14.0 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Riga FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SK Super Nova Riga FC

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SK Super Nova Riga FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Riga FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

SK Super Nova ↑ +1.00 (+10.0%)

Riga FC ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.