Lugano (W) vs AS Gambarogno (W)

09 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.3 pp

Lugano (W)

AS Gambarogno (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.8% DRAW 20.7% AWAY 16.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.5% 1.72 DRAW 22.4% 4.50 AWAY 19.1% 5.27

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Lugano (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.8% win probability, compared with 58.5% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lugano (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lugano (W) AS Gambarogno (W)

Shots 16.3 · On target 8.5 Shots 1.3 · On target 0.3

Recent attacking output favours Lugano (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lugano (W) AS Gambarogno (W)

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.5

AS Gambarogno (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lugano (W) AS Gambarogno (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Lugano (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Lugano (W) ↑ +0.03 (+1.8%)

AS Gambarogno (W) ↓ -0.12 (-2.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.