Mohun Bagan SG II vs Mohammedan SC Reserves

17 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Mohun Bagan SG II

Mohammedan SC Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.2% DRAW 20.7% AWAY 14.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.5% 1.45 DRAW 22.3% 4.00 AWAY 16.2% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mohun Bagan SG II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.2% win probability, compared with 61.5% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mohun Bagan SG II has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mohun Bagan SG II Mohammedan SC Reserves

Shots 15.0 · On target 7.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Mohun Bagan SG II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mohun Bagan SG II Mohammedan SC Reserves

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Mohun Bagan SG II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mohun Bagan SG II Mohammedan SC Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Mohun Bagan SG II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Mohun Bagan SG II ↓ -0.65 (-31.0%)

Mohammedan SC Reserves ↑ +2.60 (+89.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.