Itabirito (W) vs Vasco da Gama (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Itabirito (W)

Vasco da Gama (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.2% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 44.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.7% 3.17 DRAW 28.5% 3.30 AWAY 41.8% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Vasco da Gama (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.7% win probability, compared with 41.8% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Vasco da Gama (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Itabirito (W) Vasco da Gama (W)

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Vasco da Gama (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Itabirito (W) Vasco da Gama (W)

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Vasco da Gama (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Itabirito (W) Vasco da Gama (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Vasco da Gama (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Itabirito (W) ↑ +0.47 (+17.2%)

Vasco da Gama (W) ↓ -0.10 (-4.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.