Montreal Roses FC (W) vs AFC Toronto (W)

11 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Montreal Roses FC (W)

AFC Toronto (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.9% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 34.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% 2.45 DRAW 29.2% 3.25 AWAY 32.1% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for AFC Toronto (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.8% win probability, compared with 32.1% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

AFC Toronto (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montreal Roses FC (W) AFC Toronto (W)

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 13.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours AFC Toronto (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montreal Roses FC (W) AFC Toronto (W)

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.0

AFC Toronto (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montreal Roses FC (W) AFC Toronto (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours AFC Toronto (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Montreal Roses FC (W) = (0.0%)

AFC Toronto (W) = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.