FC Merani Tbilisi vs Kolkheti

10 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

FC Merani Tbilisi

Kolkheti

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.4% DRAW 25.3% AWAY 19.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.3% 2.00 DRAW 26.3% 3.98 AWAY 21.5% 4.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC Merani Tbilisi relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.4% win probability, compared with 52.3% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC Merani Tbilisi has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Merani Tbilisi Kolkheti

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours FC Merani Tbilisi, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Merani Tbilisi Kolkheti

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.0

FC Merani Tbilisi has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Merani Tbilisi Kolkheti

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Merani Tbilisi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FC Merani Tbilisi ↑ +0.34 (+20.5%)

Kolkheti ↑ +0.75 (+18.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.