Caracas vs Monagas

13 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Caracas

Monagas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.9% DRAW 28.8% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% 2.05 DRAW 28.6% 3.22 AWAY 26.4% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Monagas

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Caracas Monagas

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 17.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Monagas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Caracas Monagas

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Caracas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Caracas Monagas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Caracas ↑ +0.15 (+7.9%)

Monagas ↓ -0.30 (-7.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.