Danubio (W) vs Montevideo City Torque (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Danubio (W)

Montevideo City Torque (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 5.3% DRAW 11.0% AWAY 83.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 6.6% 14.20 DRAW 12.9% 7.30 AWAY 80.5% 1.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Montevideo City Torque (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 83.7% win probability, compared with 80.5% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Montevideo City Torque (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Danubio (W) Montevideo City Torque (W)

Shots 5.0 · On target 2.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Montevideo City Torque (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Danubio (W) Montevideo City Torque (W)

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 8.8 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Montevideo City Torque (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Danubio (W) Montevideo City Torque (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Montevideo City Torque (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Danubio (W) ↓ -1.30 (-8.4%)

Montevideo City Torque (W) = (0.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.