Portuguesa vs Estudiantes Merida

16 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Portuguesa

Estudiantes Merida

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.8% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 29.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% 2.37 DRAW 30.0% 3.10 AWAY 30.9% 3.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Portuguesa

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portuguesa Estudiantes Merida

Shots 14.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 14.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portuguesa Estudiantes Merida

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Portuguesa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portuguesa Estudiantes Merida

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Portuguesa ↑ +0.34 (+16.6%)

Estudiantes Merida ↓ -0.60 (-16.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.