Bahia (W) vs Corinthians (W)

16 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Bahia (W)

Corinthians (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 16.3% DRAW 22.5% AWAY 61.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.6% 5.00 DRAW 23.7% 3.92 AWAY 57.6% 1.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Corinthians (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.2% win probability, compared with 57.6% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Corinthians (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bahia (W) Corinthians (W)

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 22.3 · On target 8.5

Recent attacking output favours Corinthians (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bahia (W) Corinthians (W)

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Corinthians (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bahia (W) Corinthians (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Corinthians (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Bahia (W) ↓ -1.26 (-20.1%)

Corinthians (W) ↑ +0.23 (+16.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.