Trujillanos vs Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

17 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Trujillanos

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.2% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 19.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.4% 1.78 DRAW 26.7% 3.42 AWAY 21.9% 4.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Trujillanos relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.2% win probability, compared with 51.4% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Trujillanos has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Trujillanos Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Trujillanos Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Trujillanos has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Trujillanos Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

The combined recent performance profile favours Trujillanos.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Trujillanos ↓ -0.21 (-10.6%)

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano ↑ +0.70 (+18.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.