UMECIT Reserves vs Plaza Amador Reserves

12 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

UMECIT Reserves

Plaza Amador Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.5% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 45.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.1% 3.44 DRAW 26.0% 3.70 AWAY 45.9% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Plaza Amador Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

UMECIT Reserves Plaza Amador Reserves

Shots 4.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Plaza Amador Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UMECIT Reserves Plaza Amador Reserves

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 7.0

UMECIT Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UMECIT Reserves Plaza Amador Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

UMECIT Reserves ↑ +0.44 (+17.3%)

Plaza Amador Reserves ↓ -0.20 (-8.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.