HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

14 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

HNK Gorica

NK Varazdin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.1% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 45.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.1% 3.42 DRAW 27.3% 3.51 AWAY 44.6% 2.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: NK Varazdin

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

HNK Gorica NK Varazdin

Shots 9.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 14.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours NK Varazdin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

HNK Gorica NK Varazdin

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

HNK Gorica NK Varazdin

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

HNK Gorica ↑ +0.27 (+8.7%)

NK Varazdin = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.