NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.5 pp

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Rijeka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.4% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 62.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 17.5% 5.50 DRAW 24.5% 3.92 AWAY 58.1% 1.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates HNK Rijeka clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.6% win probability, compared with 58.1% implied by the market. The 4.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

HNK Rijeka has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Rijeka

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 14.0 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours HNK Rijeka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Rijeka

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.5

HNK Rijeka has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Rijeka

The combined recent performance profile favours HNK Rijeka.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↑ +0.61 (+12.5%)

HNK Rijeka ↓ -0.35 (-17.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.