Tolka Rovers vs Finglas United

10 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Tolka Rovers

Finglas United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.3% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 40.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% 2.45 DRAW 25.1% 3.70 AWAY 37.1% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Finglas United relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.4% win probability, compared with 37.1% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Finglas United has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tolka Rovers Finglas United

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 16.0 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Finglas United, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tolka Rovers Finglas United

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Finglas United has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tolka Rovers Finglas United

The combined recent performance profile favours Finglas United.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Tolka Rovers ↑ +0.25 (+11.4%)

Finglas United = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.