Club Atletico Progreso vs Nacional De Football

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Club Atletico Progreso

Nacional De Football

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.2% DRAW 20.1% AWAY 69.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 9.5% 10.04 DRAW 19.6% 4.84 AWAY 70.9% 1.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Club Atletico Progreso

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Atletico Progreso Nacional De Football

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 5.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Club Atletico Progreso, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Atletico Progreso Nacional De Football

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Nacional De Football has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Atletico Progreso Nacional De Football

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Club Atletico Progreso ↑ +3.48 (+53.0%)

Nacional De Football ↓ -0.16 (-10.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.