Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Olimpia Asuncion

Sportivo Luqueno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.3% DRAW 19.2% AWAY 11.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.7% 1.45 DRAW 20.9% 4.56 AWAY 13.5% 7.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Olimpia Asuncion relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.3% win probability, compared with 65.7% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Olimpia Asuncion has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Olimpia Asuncion Sportivo Luqueno

Shots 13.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Olimpia Asuncion Sportivo Luqueno

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 7.0

Olimpia Asuncion has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Olimpia Asuncion Sportivo Luqueno

The combined recent performance profile favours Olimpia Asuncion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Olimpia Asuncion ↓ -0.06 (-3.8%)

Sportivo Luqueno ↑ +1.07 (+17.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.