Villa San Carlos Reserves vs Excursionistas Reserves

10 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Villa San Carlos Reserves

Excursionistas Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.9% DRAW 31.1% AWAY 34.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.5% 2.90 DRAW 30.8% 3.25 AWAY 34.7% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Excursionistas Reserves

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Villa San Carlos Reserves Excursionistas Reserves

Shots 5.8 · On target 1.3 Shots 6.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Excursionistas Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Villa San Carlos Reserves Excursionistas Reserves

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Villa San Carlos Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Villa San Carlos Reserves Excursionistas Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Villa San Carlos Reserves ↑ +0.40 (+16.0%)

Excursionistas Reserves ↓ -0.52 (-15.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.