Real Pilar Reserves vs UAI Urquiza Reserves

10 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Real Pilar Reserves

UAI Urquiza Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.6% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 29.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.4% 2.12 DRAW 27.1% 3.40 AWAY 29.5% 3.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Pilar Reserves

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Pilar Reserves UAI Urquiza Reserves

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Real Pilar Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Pilar Reserves UAI Urquiza Reserves

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8

UAI Urquiza Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Pilar Reserves UAI Urquiza Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Real Pilar Reserves ↑ +0.07 (+3.4%)

UAI Urquiza Reserves ↑ +0.13 (+4.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.