Quilmes Reserves vs CA Ituzaingo Reserves

10 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Quilmes Reserves

CA Ituzaingo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.7% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 22.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.2% 2.13 DRAW 30.1% 3.20 AWAY 24.7% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Quilmes Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.7% win probability, compared with 45.2% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Quilmes Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Quilmes Reserves CA Ituzaingo Reserves

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 4.8 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Quilmes Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Quilmes Reserves CA Ituzaingo Reserves

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Quilmes Reserves CA Ituzaingo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Quilmes Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Quilmes Reserves ↑ +0.05 (+2.4%)

CA Ituzaingo Reserves ↓ -0.20 (-4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.