Thimphu City vs Drukpa FC

11 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +9.6 pp

Thimphu City

Drukpa FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 24.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% 2.25 DRAW 25.9% 3.60 AWAY 32.7% 2.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Thimphu City substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.0% win probability, compared with 41.4% implied by the market. The 9.6 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Thimphu City has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Thimphu City Drukpa FC

Shots 26.0 · On target 8.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Thimphu City, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Thimphu City Drukpa FC

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Thimphu City has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Thimphu City Drukpa FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Thimphu City.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Thimphu City ↑ +0.05 (+2.3%)

Drukpa FC ↑ +0.23 (+8.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.