Atletico Mineiro vs Santos

17 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Atletico Mineiro

Santos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.3% DRAW 26.2% AWAY 21.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% 1.78 DRAW 25.7% 3.83 AWAY 19.0% 5.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Santos has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Mineiro Santos

Shots 14.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 17.3 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Santos, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Mineiro Santos

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Santos has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Mineiro Santos

The combined recent performance profile favours Santos.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico Mineiro ↓ -0.06 (-3.1%)

Santos ↑ +0.10 (+2.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.