Migori Youth vs Mathare United

11 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Migori Youth

Mathare United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% DRAW 32.6% AWAY 28.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% 2.56 DRAW 32.2% 2.82 AWAY 32.4% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Migori Youth relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.7% win probability, compared with 35.4% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Migori Youth

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Migori Youth Mathare United

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Migori Youth, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Migori Youth Mathare United

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Migori Youth Mathare United

The combined recent performance profile favours Migori Youth.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Migori Youth ↑ +0.06 (+2.4%)

Mathare United = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.