Nairobi United vs APS Bomet

11 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Nairobi United

APS Bomet

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.6% DRAW 31.1% AWAY 23.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.7% 1.95 DRAW 30.5% 2.99 AWAY 22.8% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: APS Bomet

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nairobi United APS Bomet

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 7.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nairobi United APS Bomet

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.0

APS Bomet has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nairobi United APS Bomet

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nairobi United ↑ +0.04 (+2.1%)

APS Bomet = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.