Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz

11 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Tusker

Kakamega Homeboyz

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.4% DRAW 32.5% AWAY 34.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% 2.80 DRAW 31.9% 2.83 AWAY 35.8% 2.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Tusker

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tusker Kakamega Homeboyz

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tusker Kakamega Homeboyz

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Tusker has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tusker Kakamega Homeboyz

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tusker = (0.0%)

Kakamega Homeboyz ↑ +0.02 (+0.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.