Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves vs Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

14 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.4% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 36.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.0% 2.38 DRAW 27.3% 3.40 AWAY 33.7% 2.76

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deportivo Maldonado Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.5% win probability, compared with 33.7% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 18.5 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Maldonado Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Maldonado Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves = (0.0%)

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves ↑ +0.21 (+8.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.