Montevideo Wanderers Reserves vs La Luz Reserves

15 Sep 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves

La Luz Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 24.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.6% 1.89 DRAW 25.9% 3.62 AWAY 24.5% 3.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: La Luz Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves La Luz Reserves

Shots 11.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves La Luz Reserves

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 7.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves La Luz Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves ↑ +0.22 (+13.4%)

La Luz Reserves ↓ -0.27 (-6.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.