Boston River Reserves vs Cerro Largo Reserves

14 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.8 pp

Boston River Reserves

Cerro Largo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.7% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 24.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% 2.06 DRAW 26.4% 3.50 AWAY 28.7% 3.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Boston River Reserves clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.7% win probability, compared with 44.9% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Boston River Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Boston River Reserves Cerro Largo Reserves

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 4.5 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Boston River Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Boston River Reserves Cerro Largo Reserves

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.8

Boston River Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Boston River Reserves Cerro Largo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Boston River Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Boston River Reserves = (0.0%)

Cerro Largo Reserves ↑ +0.35 (+12.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.