Nacional de Montevideo Reserves vs Penarol Reserves

14 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves

Penarol Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 29.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.9% 2.20 DRAW 27.7% 3.40 AWAY 29.4% 3.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves Penarol Reserves

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves Penarol Reserves

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves Penarol Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves ↑ +0.02 (+0.9%)

Penarol Reserves ↑ +0.46 (+16.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.