UCSA vs FC Chernigiv

11 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

UCSA

FC Chernigiv

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% DRAW 29.1% AWAY 29.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.3% 2.20 DRAW 29.1% 3.12 AWAY 29.6% 3.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UCSA

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

UCSA FC Chernigiv

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 3.3 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours UCSA, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UCSA FC Chernigiv

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.0

FC Chernigiv has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UCSA FC Chernigiv

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

UCSA ↓ -0.25 (-10.2%)

FC Chernigiv ↑ +0.47 (+17.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.