Sportivo Ameliano Reserves vs Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves

11 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 86.2% DRAW 9.4% AWAY 4.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 83.3% 1.15 DRAW 11.3% 8.50 AWAY 5.5% 17.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sportivo Ameliano Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 86.2% win probability, compared with 83.3% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves

Shots 13.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Sportivo Ameliano Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.8

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Sportivo Ameliano Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves = (0.0%)

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves ↓ -3.50 (-16.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.