Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle

26 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Lota Schwager

Provincial Ovalle

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.7% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 20.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.2% 1.80 DRAW 26.3% 3.51 AWAY 22.5% 4.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Provincial Ovalle

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lota Schwager Provincial Ovalle

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Provincial Ovalle, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lota Schwager Provincial Ovalle

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Lota Schwager has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lota Schwager Provincial Ovalle

The combined recent performance profile favours Lota Schwager.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Lota Schwager ↓ -0.11 (-5.7%)

Provincial Ovalle ↑ +0.09 (+2.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.