Nexus Miyakonojo vs Nippon Steel Oita

12 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.2 pp

Nexus Miyakonojo

Nippon Steel Oita

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% DRAW 24.5% AWAY 25.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.2% 2.13 DRAW 25.7% 3.75 AWAY 29.2% 3.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nexus Miyakonojo clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.4% win probability, compared with 45.2% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nexus Miyakonojo has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nexus Miyakonojo Nippon Steel Oita

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Nexus Miyakonojo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nexus Miyakonojo Nippon Steel Oita

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Nexus Miyakonojo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nexus Miyakonojo Nippon Steel Oita

The combined recent performance profile favours Nexus Miyakonojo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Nexus Miyakonojo ↑ +0.43 (+25.3%)

Nippon Steel Oita ↓ -0.30 (-8.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.