Honda FC vs Vonds Ichihara

12 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Honda FC

Vonds Ichihara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.3% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 20.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.5% 1.95 DRAW 27.5% 3.51 AWAY 23.0% 4.19

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Honda FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.3% win probability, compared with 49.5% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Honda FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Honda FC Vonds Ichihara

Shots 14.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Honda FC Vonds Ichihara

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Honda FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Honda FC Vonds Ichihara

The combined recent performance profile favours Honda FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Honda FC ↑ +0.15 (+8.3%)

Vonds Ichihara ↑ +0.29 (+7.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.