Wiltz vs Progres Niedercorn

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Wiltz

Progres Niedercorn

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 12.8% DRAW 22.5% AWAY 64.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.5% 6.88 DRAW 23.6% 4.25 AWAY 61.9% 1.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Progres Niedercorn relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.6% win probability, compared with 61.9% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Progres Niedercorn has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Wiltz Progres Niedercorn

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Wiltz Progres Niedercorn

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 9.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Progres Niedercorn has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Wiltz Progres Niedercorn

The combined recent performance profile favours Progres Niedercorn.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Wiltz ↑ +0.41 (+6.3%)

Progres Niedercorn ↓ -0.22 (-11.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.