Ursus Warsawa vs MKS Makowianka

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Ursus Warsawa

MKS Makowianka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.6% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 27.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.2% 1.91 DRAW 23.5% 4.00 AWAY 27.3% 3.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ursus Warsawa

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ursus Warsawa MKS Makowianka

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.0 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Ursus Warsawa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ursus Warsawa MKS Makowianka

Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.8

MKS Makowianka has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ursus Warsawa MKS Makowianka

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ursus Warsawa ↓ -0.09 (-4.6%)

MKS Makowianka ↑ +0.56 (+19.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.