Jaguar Gdansk vs LKS Pogon Lebork

12 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Jaguar Gdansk

LKS Pogon Lebork

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.0% DRAW 22.6% AWAY 45.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% 3.00 DRAW 23.4% 3.94 AWAY 45.9% 2.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Jaguar Gdansk

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Jaguar Gdansk LKS Pogon Lebork

Shots 12.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Jaguar Gdansk, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Jaguar Gdansk LKS Pogon Lebork

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.5

LKS Pogon Lebork has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Jaguar Gdansk LKS Pogon Lebork

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Jaguar Gdansk ↓ -1.20 (-28.5%)

LKS Pogon Lebork ↑ +0.39 (+24.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.