Unam Pumas U19 (W) vs Toluca U19 (W)

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.2 pp

Unam Pumas U19 (W)

Toluca U19 (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 16.5% DRAW 22.0% AWAY 61.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.2% 4.77 DRAW 23.5% 3.90 AWAY 57.3% 1.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Toluca U19 (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.4% win probability, compared with 57.3% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Toluca U19 (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Unam Pumas U19 (W) Toluca U19 (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 9.8

Recent attacking output favours Toluca U19 (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Unam Pumas U19 (W) Toluca U19 (W)

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.0

Toluca U19 (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Unam Pumas U19 (W) Toluca U19 (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Toluca U19 (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Unam Pumas U19 (W) ↓ -0.11 (-2.2%)

Toluca U19 (W) ↑ +0.03 (+1.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.