ZFK TSC (W) vs ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W)

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +7.6 pp

ZFK TSC (W)

ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.3% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 71.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.8% 7.50 DRAW 22.8% 4.55 AWAY 63.3% 1.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 71.0% win probability, compared with 63.3% implied by the market. The 7.6 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

ZFK TSC (W) ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W)

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 28.5 · On target 16.8

Recent attacking output favours ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ZFK TSC (W) ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W)

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.8

ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ZFK TSC (W) ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

ZFK TSC (W) ↑ +3.00 (+66.7%)

ZFK Crvena Zvezda (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.