Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Chicago Fire II

Philadelphia Union II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.4% DRAW 21.5% AWAY 24.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% 1.90 DRAW 22.9% 4.20 AWAY 26.5% 3.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Chicago Fire II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.4% win probability, compared with 50.6% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Chicago Fire II

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chicago Fire II Philadelphia Union II

Shots 13.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chicago Fire II Philadelphia Union II

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 8.5

Chicago Fire II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chicago Fire II Philadelphia Union II

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Chicago Fire II ↑ +0.23 (+14.0%)

Philadelphia Union II ↓ -0.08 (-2.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.