Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II

14 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Portland Timbers II

St Louis City II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.8% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 30.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.5% 2.38 DRAW 26.0% 3.61 AWAY 34.5% 2.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Portland Timbers II clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.8% win probability, compared with 39.5% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Portland Timbers II has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portland Timbers II St Louis City II

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 6.0 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Portland Timbers II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portland Timbers II St Louis City II

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portland Timbers II St Louis City II

The combined recent performance profile favours Portland Timbers II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Portland Timbers II ↑ +0.43 (+22.1%)

St Louis City II ↓ -0.38 (-12.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.