Newport City FC vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

16 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Newport City FC

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.8% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 28.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.8% 2.09 DRAW 25.1% 3.65 AWAY 31.1% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Newport City FC clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.8% win probability, compared with 43.8% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Newport City FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Newport City FC Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Shots 10.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Newport City FC Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Newport City FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Newport City FC Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

The combined recent performance profile favours Newport City FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Newport City FC ↑ +0.02 (+1.0%)

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC ↓ -0.05 (-1.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.