Tianjin Jinmen Tigers U20 vs Beijing Guoan U20

13 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Tianjin Jinmen Tigers U20

Beijing Guoan U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.6% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 48.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.4% 3.19 DRAW 26.0% 3.60 AWAY 44.6% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Beijing Guoan U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.2% win probability, compared with 44.6% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Beijing Guoan U20 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tianjin Jinmen Tigers U20 Beijing Guoan U20

Shots 6.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Beijing Guoan U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tianjin Jinmen Tigers U20 Beijing Guoan U20

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Beijing Guoan U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tianjin Jinmen Tigers U20 Beijing Guoan U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Beijing Guoan U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Tianjin Jinmen Tigers U20 ↑ +0.39 (+13.8%)

Beijing Guoan U20 = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.