Kwai Tsing DFA vs Kwun Tong

13 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Kwai Tsing DFA

Kwun Tong

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.0% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 38.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% 3.26 DRAW 25.4% 3.94 AWAY 43.9% 2.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Kwai Tsing DFA clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.0% win probability, compared with 30.7% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Kwai Tsing DFA

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Kwai Tsing DFA Kwun Tong

Shots 15.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 3.0 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Kwai Tsing DFA, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Kwai Tsing DFA Kwun Tong

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Kwun Tong has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Kwai Tsing DFA Kwun Tong

The combined recent performance profile favours Kwai Tsing DFA.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Kwai Tsing DFA ↑ +0.76 (+30.4%)

Kwun Tong ↑ +0.03 (+1.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.