GFC Friends vs Tuen Mun SA

13 Sep 2026 · 09:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

GFC Friends

Tuen Mun SA

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.4% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 30.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% 2.18 DRAW 25.4% 3.70 AWAY 31.4% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: GFC Friends

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

GFC Friends Tuen Mun SA

Shots 15.3 · On target 10.0 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours GFC Friends, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

GFC Friends Tuen Mun SA

Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 9.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Tuen Mun SA has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

GFC Friends Tuen Mun SA

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

GFC Friends ↑ +0.25 (+13.0%)

Tuen Mun SA ↓ -0.18 (-5.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.