Wanchai vs Tsuen Wan

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Wanchai

Tsuen Wan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.4% DRAW 16.9% AWAY 12.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.7% 1.29 DRAW 15.6% 6.26 AWAY 8.7% 11.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tsuen Wan relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 12.7% win probability, compared with 8.7% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Tsuen Wan has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Wanchai Tsuen Wan

Shots 9.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 20.0 · On target 11.8

Recent attacking output favours Tsuen Wan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Wanchai Tsuen Wan

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Tsuen Wan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Wanchai Tsuen Wan

The combined recent performance profile favours Tsuen Wan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Wanchai ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

Tsuen Wan ↑ +4.70 (+72.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.