Tivoli Gardens vs Humble Lions

13 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Tivoli Gardens

Humble Lions

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.9% DRAW 22.5% AWAY 25.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.6% 1.75 DRAW 22.9% 4.10 AWAY 23.5% 4.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Humble Lions

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tivoli Gardens Humble Lions

Shots 2.5 · On target 1.0 Shots 3.5 · On target 0.3

Recent attacking output favours Tivoli Gardens, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tivoli Gardens Humble Lions

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Humble Lions has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tivoli Gardens Humble Lions

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Tivoli Gardens ↑ +0.28 (+19.1%)

Humble Lions ↓ -1.63 (-28.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.